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Water FractalTier 2
at MY Hobby PTM Store Championship
decks
3
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
7-8-3
overall winrate
47.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.5%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1274
· median 1256
· range 1159–1409
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1139
Q1 1278
Q3 1423
1472
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 19.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.2% | -4.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 63.1% | +12.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +3.5 |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
